So it’s happened and it looks like Cameron is resigning. Will be interesting to see the full long term implications for Ireland?
It’s not going to be good.
Check your rashers and sausages.
sterling has tanked already, hope they dont drag us down with them.
Anyone care to outline a Brexit for Dummies to explain how it might effect us ? And yes I’m a dummy in regards to this , have little interest in politics so haven’t really been following it .
very uncertain times ahead though I won’t believe all the doom and gloom outlined by our European masters. The wife is a buyer who mostly buys forth UK so she is bricking it.
No one really knows is the real answer, even the Brexit campaigners hadn’t thought about a plan beyond the vote. They were full of bluster in the run-in, not expecting to win, but to gain some political capital by saying I fought for the people. Now they’re like a deer in the headlights, have no answers to where this will go.
Boris and Trump leading 2 of the biggest players in the western world, we’re truly fkd!
basically they now have a choice of pay as much as they currently are and comply to all the EU rules, if they want to remain part of the single market - but they’ll have no say in the rules anymore OR go it totally alone and face a recession and loss of GDP. Not doomsdays levels but a lot of business and financial institutions will get out of london to be in the EU, so ireland might benefit in the medium term.
I hope the IDA are flying over right now to poach as many multi nationals as possible. And be cheeky about it…do it Seanie Johnston style
Cheers man , I shall read and digest this later !
In the event they actually exit I’d expect Scotland to poll and achieve independence and the Common Travel Area to be administered on an all island basis. Dublin gets the chance to bring some London multinationals over before Scotland post independence competes with us as the only native EU English speakers. We will have about a 3 year head start though.
Nothing really happened today. The markets will recover but in the long term trade between Ireland and Britain will be affected if there is a depreciation in the pound post actual exit as English markets will not be as eager to buy Irish goods at a higher price. Trade tarrifs will also apply.
The north is in limbo though, it heavily depends upon the European subsidies for the agri food sector and it receives monies from England that English nationalists will want to pull back on. In effect the English don’t want it, and we can’t afford it due to its lack of a private sector.
The alternative is Brexit 2 but the English might not tolerate that as easy as we would.
Not really in favour or against the exit, but it does set up an interesting situation. Personally I don`t think it will have as big an impact as some think economically, as the saying goes " Money is Money" and all parties will find a solution. I think the NI and Scottish situation is the most interesting and you could add in Gibraltar, a 96% in vote. Would the Scots now vote for independence? What about the EU countries like Spain that were so adamant that they should not have had a referendum in the first place and continually scare mongered about how Scotland would be banished from civilization if they voted for independence and told them their salvation was a No to independence, Will they now support them in their quest for independence. What % of the Unionist community in NI, who voted IN, would be in favour of voting for a united Ireland in order to stay IN. Will Spain push for Gibraltar?
Only posted a short time ago on Sky but Scotland does look likely to have a referendum again
IMO this was about one thing only, & that was immigration.
It already has hurt with the drop in value of sterling.
Going to watch the Dubs this weekend has suddenly become more expensive.
Polls suggest a huge amount of nationalist voters in the north digress from unity probably because of economics. The hard truth is they are better off under EU and UK subsidies than in a unified country that can’t afford them, despite SF rhetoric. The northern economy is just too weak as it stands. Whether the EU may tip enough of them and middle class unionists is debatable but highly unlikely in my view. It would really be a SF publicity stunt, bolstering their legitimacy as if Scotland can call one the north surely can. Same logic after all. But if Scotland goes the union is de facto ended and I think arrangements in Ireland will remove the border absolutely. I don’t see how normal good Friday agreement relations can be ensured with a EU/Non EU frontier in Ireland. For immigration there simply wouldn’t be a border in my view. Ireland would be considered one entity.
Gibraltar is interesting. Spain can’t really make it difficult inside the EU open border agreement but if Gibraltar is out then Spain could easily impose a hard border and make life very difficult for them. They probably would too.
But would it be wise for SF to push for a referendum knowing that they would not win. In Scotland the chances of a yes vote are very good, but what good would it do for SF if they were to lose a referendum, it would only set back the chances of a united Ireland for years. The Quebec government advised the Catalan nationalists to be very careful about choosing the right moment as you only get an opportunity once in a lifetime and therefore suggested that the Catalans had patience and waited until they are sure.
I take your point, it probably doesn’t make sense but irish unity is probably not in the psyche of most people anymore. The GF agreement puts it down to the will of the 6 counties and I think many have parked it north and south. SF would like to change that and the EU baton is at the very least a heavy one to get their point across. I think it would be defeated but what other circumstance in the near future could potentially be better than a break up of the union and EU omission? A unionist with no union in bed with the english who dont want them. Would that work for SF? Maybe not but the alternative is hoping for secretarian politics and that if anything has gone against them.
In reference to Quebec, this is SF’s moment for glory. Its the perfect storm in many ways.
It’s worth remembering that the Republic would then have to vote to accept reunification. That would be in no way an easy ride for SF et al. At the end of the day Irish people vote with their wallets.
I don’t believe SF would win a vote in the North by the way.
Morgan Stanley already looking into relocating thousands of banking jobs from to London to either Frankfurt or Dublin.
Andrea leadsom, a leading Tory Minister and pro Brexit was asked this morning what can be done to prop up the FTSE and/or Sterling as they’re both in nose-dive. She said she’d worked in finance through Britain being chucked out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism and through the crash of 2008. She would only say calm negotiation, or something like that. She hadn’t a clue… no detail.