Back in the Sixties some scientist did a study of social & economic expansion and resource consumption in the world, how it would effect the ecosystem, and predicted that capitalist democratic societies would start to be clearly unsustainable and falling apart by 2020…
The endless consumption of shitty goods sadly keeps the economy afloat but is ultimately unsustainable. Flying chicken in from Thailand never made any sense to me.
Clothing been worn once or twice - huge strain on natural resources, especially water.
It was a lot later than the 60’s that projections were overstated and I do think the interpretation of climate models were used unwisely and may have undermined climate science to this day. It’s clear enough the physical science basis is well grounded as is the empirical science in terms of measuring and recording.
But modelling, while a crucial and necessary scientific tool, is frought with difficulty in a climate sense. We’ve seen a 1 degree Celsius increase but some projections had us in a hot house by now and that’s within the context of a business as usual or increased output scenario too.
It’s probable that there are still key short term carbon sinks that are keeping warming in check. Protecting these are key. They are most likely the oceans and forests but the oceans capacity to absorb is reducing as they warm.
Nature often displays threshold behaviour. Like a avalanche, it doesn’t gently give way, it collapses quickly. I think the climate will go likewise. There are numerous coupled interdependent systems playing off each other and passing the point of no return can’t be far away.
Yes, agreed. I’ve read about temporary increased ocean carbon consumption, which btw is the latest thing that the deniers have latched onto. Tbh at this stage in some ways it’s better to understand that alot of deniers are just people who feel responsibility for doing something about what’s happening, but feel helpless to do anything really effective in the short-term at least , and they’re hardly going to broadcast “we’re all doomed!” (unless they follow Dublin footballers).
What I posted above was about a guy who put together all the key indicators of human societal developmental (as it was happening and projected to continue at the time) and natural environmental and resource sustainability, and then projected that in a measureable way the latter would fail and lead to the breakdown of the former by 2020.
Mind you, the 50s and 60s had a million doomsday predictions, but this one seems to have been quite measured.
I was listening to an interview with him on the radio yesterday but can’t remember the name or find the show because it’s some stand-in show for a regular show so no podcast available, doh!
Just a coincidence