Russia- Ukraine

The tweet has been deleted. What did it say? It is something like this?

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Pretty much that yea,

Figures published last week by the Donetsk People’s Republic, part of the self-declared pro-Putin autonomous region in eastern Ukraine known as the Donbas, claimed that more than 2,100 of its forces had died since operations began and nearly 9,000 had been wounded.

The casualty rate equals roughly 55% of its total force, according to the U.K. Ministry of Defense, “which highlights the extraordinary attrition rate Russian and pro-Russian forces are suffering in the Donbas.”

Also

The Institute for the Study of War, citing the BBC’s Russian service, noted that new Russian recruits receive only three to seven days of training before being sent to “the most active sectors of the front.”

The BBC also reported that volunteers within the Russian military along with the equivalent of national guard forces and Russia’s government-affiliated mercenary group have become Russia’s main assault force, as opposed to conventional military units.

Cannon Fodder anyone?

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Russians must be saving their robbers & rapists for the next offensive…

A friend of a friend is over there as a volunteer who got 8 weeks of training before being sent to the front.

interesting video

Only a handful of units so far but supposed to be v long-range and pretty accurate, more lads are being trained up now so the next batch is on the way.

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Great stuff!

And Moldova…incl Transdnistria… as it does not say otherwise! The more I consider what is happening, the more I expect Putin to attack a NATO country.

2 weeks ago it all sounded v negative from a Ukrainian point of view but guys like O Brien and General Hertling And Mike Martin who have been v accurate to date held the “ Ukraine will win” line

If I recall also a senior Ukrainian General on sky said August would be a turning point so maybe just maybe it’s taking time and meanwhile Russia as the offensive side are suffering hugely

Imagine at some point the weapons from Europe and US take effect

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I wonder if August is the turning point due to so many troops currently in the USA, France, UK, Germany, Poland and a few other places training on heavy Western weapons and the delivery of these weapons all coming together. I suspect the likes of the German and Dutch supplied howitzers are hidden away until the folk that know how to use them are in place. We see the French systems in action, and the French are sending a few more. The British and American systems probably similar. Fighter jets are on their way from Slovakia it appears.

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They have been training on how to use in Germany over the last few weeks, even translated the UI of the systems to Ukrainian, on the front now. By all accounts, the french ones are v popular with the Ukrainians, rated as one of the best mobile art pieces going. Can setup, put in co ordiates you want to hit, shoot and scoot all in a few minutes. Very long-range and can shoot guided munitions.

If Putin can’t take the Donbas in summer it’s not going to happen in winter time

This is the crucial part of the war really

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He has more or less taken Luhansk but the rest of the Donbas is going to be a slog. UKR doing what they have done all along, trade land for fights in urban centers (very costly for attackers to take) and inflict casualties on the Russians. As more and more kit arrives, and UKR train more and more reserves hopefully the tide will turn (Russians getting 7 days of training before being sent in is insane). the Russian airborne units have apparently suffered 60% casualties.

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Fingers crossed that this analysis is accurate. A friend of a friend volunteered, he got 8 weeks of training and is not stationed away from the front line in one of those areas that they need to maintain a presence in case the Russians use Moldova as a base of ops.

The issue though is the more land lost, the more costly it will be for Ukraine to take back. The Russians aren’t going to just pull out.

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Russia hasn’t got an endless supply of munitions or cash either

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