The Dontfoul deep-drilling thread

Didn’t realise Dontfoul had been writing this year until about ten minutes ago… Does he know we’re up and running on this site?

Always fascinating reading:

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First Aido - now this!

Have you just come out of hibernation Joxer?!

Oh, don’t be fooled by my shyness.

I’m always here, skulking, watching… like a dirty aul’ spunker in a bush.

There’s a mental picture no-one needs on a Tuesday.

Stats on the last 15 mins are amazing, some transformation from Dublin compared to the prior period.

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Brilliant breakdown yet again. I for one probably haven’t given enough credit to the Mayo defence, I put Dublin’s lack of scoring and attacking impetus down to the forwards having a bad day but it seems Mayo have forced their last 2 opponents into having equally bad days also. Granted the weather, without doubt, favoured a defender it is still impressive.

I’m probably the same on Mayo’s defence. The number of our shots on which they got real pressure compared to number of times we did on theirs makes stark reading. Although a conversion rate of 4 from 11 on those chances where there was little or no pressure on our shooting attests to some pretty poor shooting and shot selection on our behalf.

The numbers do also confirm that we enjoyed the bulk of the possession, attacks and shots which basically prove this notion that we were bullied is nonsense. We just couldn’t finish our dinner on the day.

Good stuff, but would it be possible to revise your expected points category so as to take account of own goals that are the result of attacking pressure? Even if you disagree that Dublin’s two goals were the result of attacking pressure, you could surely imagine more clear cut cases of that sort of thing (keeper beaten, defender running towards goal with an attacking player heading for the ball and an open goal…defender has to try to cut out the pass, and in doing so puts it into his own net). Surely the attacking side merits some sort of credit for this, and, as you note, it doesn’t show up in the statistics.

As of yet, I don’t believe Dontfoul has joined the new Resincarnation.

Dontfoul’s replay instalment.

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Just getting to look at that now… It is very interesting on the Mayo kickout and the fact that they scored more off Hennelly’s kickouts.

The description of O Connor’s arc for free taking is fascinating. For me, that arc isn’t big enough if he wants to be a top top free taker. Rock would have a bigger range, not by much, but it would be better. That last free should be within the range of a top free taker, it is similar enough to Cluxton’s in '11 when you adjust for the left / right foot kick.

What I get from these stats is that the game was all about execution, with Mayo pressing so hard on everything, it came down to who could execute the skills better under pressure and Dublin just shade it on all the important ones.

But, I think there is another element not captured. Dublin had 4 or 5 really good chances in the last 10 minutes that they missed through poor execution, not through Mayo pressure. Primarily, and off the top of my head (so there could be more), Fenton through up the middle and slips and can’t give the ball to a scorer, Fitzsimons though and should have put the ball over himself, McCarthy bad miss off his left (bad miss by his standards, not for others), Flynn wide off his left also, called back for pick up and Costello slips when kicking and leaves it short.

These were all relatively easy and were missed either due to the wet conditions and / or it was the last few minutes of an AI final and guys were being extra safe. But there is no correlation on the Mayo side really apart from the O Shea miss, which is very scorable by his standards. But my point is really easy, that if Dublin had done what they normally do, that should have been a five point win and the whole story of the final becomes different. These chances were also becoming more frequent as the game went on, so it looked like Dublin had soaked up the Mayo pressure and were coming out the other side.